These are the insights coming from our sentiment analysis, which we carried out on Twitter, on the English-language tweets about hashtag #oscarnoms, from 14 to 18 January.
In recent years, in 2014 and in 2015, we correctly predicted the winner. We applied the same methodology to 2016, and surprisingly the ultimate indication is rather univocal.
But first things first. We started as usual from the quantitative analysis, or the number of unique tweet related to each film. The Revenant wins hands down, and all the other films are far behind.
Even on the sentiment side, on a scale from 0 to 100, the indication is still univocal in favor of The Revenant.
If we merge the share of voice and the sentiment, we get a Brandiment® map.
The positioning of the movies ON THE MAP shows even more clearly that The Revenant is definitely the favourite.
Finally, we added the Box Office USA (source: IMDB), represented in the map with the size of the bubble. And: wow! The Revenant is not only the film with better sentiment and share of voice, but it is also among the films that have grossed more.
A little surprising, The Big Short does not stand out in any of the examined parameters, and, together with the other movies colored in yellow, it is not among our favorites.
So, here our final victory percentages:
Room 5%: discreetly positioned, but also with the lowest BO in the lot, and distributed by a small production company (lacking the lobbying capacity of big Studios).
Spotlight 10%: good values of share of voice and sentiment, the only one with Room and The Revenant to exceed 80 points of sentiment.
The Revenant 85%: absolutely solid on all parameters examined, with important confirmations that come from awards before the Oscars.
These are our predictions, what do you think? In a few days, we'll see!