Our Oscar Predictions

In Big Data Analytics, Estroscommesse, Sentiment Analysis, Web Analytics
In less than a week, we'll know. But in the meantime, let's play. Although the predictions have from long time ceased to be just a game. Starting from the weather forecasts which are among the most searched services in absolute on the web. To the predictions on the upcoming movies, with tracking services that cost millions of dollars to the US majors, with results not always convincing. In our small way, without costing millions of dollars, we made a year ago this study, with forecasts of Oscar correct in three cases out of four. But let’s move to 2015. Through our listening platform, we monitored the reactions on Twitter from 15 to 18 January 2015, in English, to Oscar nominations. We searched on queries oscar and #oscarnoms for tweets containing the title of at least one of the eight nominated films. Here are the first data detected, the share of voice: Selma is the film that has generated more discussions, but it was often cited as an example of the film "snubbed" (only two nominations, well below expectations). According to the controversy that followed, it was snubbed for being a movie on the rights of blacks and minorities, while the "warmonger" American Sniper would be rewarded far beyond its merits. A high visibility, therefore, that does not necessarily indicate a greater chance for these two films. We come to the second data, obtained through the sentiment analysis: how people have talked about these movies? On a scale from 0 to 100, this time The Theory of Everything and Birdman prevail. Now we combine the data, building a map with share of voice value on the vertical axis, and the sentiment value on the horizontal axis. Three groups emerge, highlighted with colors from dark green (most favored) to yellow (disadvantaged). Finally, we associate the US Box Office, according to the latest data available IMDB, representing them with the size of the bubbles. It is impressive how much American Sniper has disconnected all pursuers. And here we are at our reasoned percentages of victory: Birdman appears more balanced, taking together the best sentiment and a good share of voice -> 40% American sniper, despite some liberal criticism, which could weigh in the final vote, has high visibility and business, and a good sentiment, albeit not at the top -> 30% The theory of everything shares the best sentiment with Birdman. However, the rather low visibility and limited collections seem to resize its overall strength -> 10% Other films in light green: as visibility or sentiment they are just behind the top three, and sometimes they even performed better at the Box Office. Specifically, it looks interesting the positioning of The Grand Budapest Hotel -> 20% to the group as a whole Battle pretty open, so, with two films in particular that we see favorites. Surprisingly, Boyhood doesn’t seem competitive, with a very low sentiment online despite the good reviews. And you, what do you foresee?

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